base rate fallacyの例文

• Falsely equating the two probabilities causes various errors of reasoning such as the base rate fallacy.
• The base rate fallacy describes how people do not take the base rate of an event into account when solving probability problems.
• As can be seen, the base rate P ( H ) is ignored in this equation, leading to the base rate fallacy.
• Someone making the'base rate fallacy'would infer that there is a 99 % chance that the detected person is a terrorist.
• An extreme example of the base rate fallacy is to conclude that a male person is pregnant just because he tests positive in a pregnancy test.
• Physicians have difficulty in estimated risks of diseases; frequently erring towards overestimation, perhaps due to cognitive biases such as base rate fallacy in which the risk of an adverse outcome is exaggerated.
• The base rate fallacy in medicine, or the Prosecutor's fallacy in legal reasoning, consists of making the erroneous assumption that p ( y \ mid x ) = p ( x \ mid y ).
• He and his collaborators have theoretically and experimentally shown that many so-called cognitive fallacies are better understood as adaptive responses to a world of uncertainty-such as the conjunction fallacy, the base rate fallacy, and overconfidence.
• Not adjusting to the scarcity of the condition in the new population, and concluding that a positive test result probably indicates a positive subject, even though population incidence is below the false positive rate, is a " base rate fallacy ".
• This work points out that the scientific work reviewed above that claims to demonstrate accurate gaydar falls prey to the false positive paradox ( see also the base rate fallacy ), because the alleged accuracy discounts the very low base rate of LGB people in real populations.
• For instance, health numeracy also requires the ability to understand probabilities or relative frequencies in various numerical and graphical formats, and to engage in Bayesian inference, while avoiding errors sometimes associated with Bayesian reasoning ( see Base rate fallacy, Conservatism ( Bayesian ) ).
• The base rate fallacy is so misleading in this example because there are many more non-terrorists than terrorists, and the number of false positives ( non-terrorists scanned as terrorists ) is so much larger than the true positives ( the real number of terrorists ).
• Richard Nisbett has argued that some attributional biases like the fundamental attribution error are instances of the base rate fallacy : people do not use the " consensus information " ( the " base rate " ) about how others behaved in similar situations and instead prefer simpler dispositional attributions.
• This file drawer problem ( characterized by negative or non-significant results being tucked away in a cabinet ), can result in a biased distribution of effect sizes thus creating a serious base rate fallacy, in which the significance of the published studies is overestimated, as other studies were either not submitted for publication or were rejected.